Splinters and Pillows- Ateneo/La Salle, Game 1

by Migs

Does anyone have extra tickets to Sunday's game?

Okay, the fankid side of me shall remain silent until the end of this article.

I trooped over to Ateneo last Thursday, in the hope that I could nab even the most meager of passes for the hottest ticket in town- Ateneo/La Salle, for all the marbles, 2008 style, round one. I did come out empty handed after my Ateneo tryst, however, reflecting on the ins and outs of the impending clash between Green and Blue sufaced as my futile quest for rectangular pieces of paper that, these days, are as good as gold, came to a close.

Who's going to win? Is Ateneo going to dominate? Will La Salle come out kicking enough to kick themselves all the way home? Will the Eagles' wings be clipped by the vaunted DLSU press?

Here are my keys to victory, per squad:

ADMU:



*Close out on DLSU's shooters: Because the Archers do not have a legitimate post presence ala Rabeh Al Hussaini, DLSU may have to stake their life on the shooting prowess of their wingmen. La Salle can choose to use Rico Maierhoffer and his isolation penetration skills as a decoy of sorts which could eventually lead to kick out passes to shooters like Malabes, Atkins, and Mangahas. Off misses, bigs like Walsham, Ferdinand, and Maierhoffer can chase down loose balls. If the misses are slightly long, though, expect the Eagles to dominate the glass with their superior height and length. Ateneo won't have to double anyone in the paint per se, but then penetrators like Rico (Maierhoffer) and James (Mangahas) will have to have the proverbial door shut on them. The defensive onus, then, will rest squarely on the shoulders of guys like Jai Reyes, Eric Salamat, Ryan Buenafe, and Chris Tiu if and when the Greens kick out to anywhere beyond the arc.

*Push the tempo, but don't forget to establish post game: Ateneo currently leads the entire UAAP in fastbreak points, and while they have more traditional bigs than hybrid 4's or 5's, they've proven themselves to be capable of speeding things up just enough so as to still have guys like Rabeh and Jobe find their footing for easy pop shots around the hoop. Pushing the odometer upward just right allows them not to be too susceptible to La Salle's press, while still being able to get their perimeter guns good shots in "semi transition" ("semi transition" J's mean guarantees better rebounding opportunities; if your bigs can follow your wings upcourt, then you'll be fine in terms of 2nd chance throws at the basket).

*Minimize Turnovers: The Eagles are 14-1 for the season up until this juncture, however, it must be noted that they haven't always taken care of the spheroid like a championship-caliber club. Eric Salamat will have to be more judicious with his kamikaze drives, as any errant knock-aways should always immediately lead to a successful Archers fastbreak.

*Play through Rabeh and Chris: Chris Tiu and probable MVP Rabeh Al Hussaini are catalysts for positive basketball. When he isn't draining threes from parking lots across the nation, Tiu is starting drive and dish plays cooked to perfection. When he doesn't have the rock on the low block, Al Hussaini is a master at moving without the ball towards getting good rebounding position, or towards receiving drop passes from teammates streaking across the lane. If Ateneo manages to run their offense through these two players, such that they don't have any of their other men play out of position, then, the Eagles should have a shot at victory. Let Mike Baldos and Kirk Long do their best Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili impersonations, totally eschewing the established, effective, offensive system, and you will most likely find yourself in deep, deep, trouble, much to the liking of those from Taft.

*Help Nonoy: Columnist Rick Olivares recently unveiled his "IAMNONOY" Ateneo-themed shirt with the words, "I REBOUND, I BLOCK SHOTS, I AM A BLUE EAGLE" emblazoned on its back. By golly, rebound and block shots he does.


Nonoy Baclao is the anchor of the Ateneo defense. He's quelled attacks from the likes of Elmer Espiritu to Dylan Ababou to Rico Maierhoffer. When the perimeter defenders in Blue and White fail, Nonoy awaits, ready to strike, ready to clean up any of his teammates' shortcomings.


As great as it is to have a fly swatter in the paint, the Eagles cannot rely on Baclao alone to deter La Salle from establishing themselves inside. Rabeh Al Hussaini will have to be quicker in terms of moving switching off screen and rolls. Chris Tiu and Eric Salamat will have to be wary of taking gambles on the Archers' wingmen, and rooks like Salva and Buenafe will need to be wary of working through screens and clogging passing lanes during kickouts. Support Nonoy, and Ateneo will have the game in the palm of the hand. Let him do all the dirty work, and what you get is a fouled out former West Negros High School power forward, and, believe it or not, a large, gaping, hole in the middle. Lord knows Rico Maierhoffer would love that.



DLSU:



*Establish shooters' confidence early: Former Detroit Piston Joe Dumars once said that having a shooter's mentality allows a man to chuck up shots even after he's gone 1 for 10 over three quarters. Not that the Archers need to go 1-10 from behind the arc before they wake up, but what I'm trying to say is that DLSU needs to ascertain that their shooters get good looks- early.


A good shooting game from Simon Atkins or Bader Malabes would put a lot of pressure on Ateneo's defense. If they shoot well, the Blue's defense will have to sag out, giving more multidimensional players like Casio, Mangahas, and Maierfhoffer more room to operate closer to the rim. What's more, a decent shooting display from DLSU's shooters should help in negating Ateneo's own shooters from laying on some extra hurt on the offensive end. At this point, the game boils down to who executes better, and who blinks first. Based on how La Salle has played during the waining moments of games this year, this might be just the way they'd envision winning the inaugural game of the UAAP finals against their arch rivals.


*Let JVee Casio run the show: At times this season, he's looked human in the scorecards, but then, JVee Casio can do so much more than just chalk up points. Use him as a decoy when he's on the brink of being double-teamed. Use him a passer for drops to bigs like Ferdinand and Walsham. Let him run the offense and create. What's the worse that could happen? He's the King Archer and it's either he takes a big shot and makes or misses it, or makes a great pass, which eventually translates into an outstanding, or, bungled, play. As long as he gains a semblance of control over the good and bad, DLSU should be fine. If Casio scores more than 10 points or dishes out more than 6 assists in game one, look out.


*Who'll the surprise "shooter" be?: In the 2002 UAAP Finals, Franz Pumaren threw young Martin Urra Jr. onto the grill as part of a certain DLSU five. Coach Franz has been known to play rookies during pressure packed situations, and he's netted favorable results as per this habit. This year, some DLSU rookies and sophomores, namely Joshua Webb, Ferdinand, Maui Villanueva, and LA Revilla have proven to be capable of handling stress on the court in one way or another. With the Eagles' defense gunning for established veterans like JVee and Rico, will the rookies and shock troopers come to play?

For the sake of those in Archerland, the reserves better be at their best, lest their team be in for a long, grueling, afternoon.

*Keep Rico Maierhoffer's head in check: The man's got size, speed, and savvy from the perimeter and on the inside. So what's not to like?

When he's forcing layups over two bigs or chucking up ill-advised threes with reckless abandon, you've got to believe such antics drive Coach Franz Pumaren bananas.

Rico Maierhoffer is perhaps DLSU's most potent inside/outside threat. He's quick enough to match up with Nonoy Baclao and quick enough to potentially outmaneuver Rabeh Al Hussaini. He's this team's Rasheed Wallace. When he's under control, and aggressive, the Archers become tough to beat. When he's too eager beaver to score "emotional" baskets and too eager to be scrappy on defense, that's when things get ugly.

With JVee and Rico go the Archers. Or so I think.

*Run, run, run: Ateneo is the league's best fastbreak team, however, the tools Franz Pumaren has on his bench can sprint with the best. Later today, they'll get their chance.

In my view, the Archers should unleash the likes of LA Revilla, JVee Casio, and Rico Maierhoffer, plus throw in a little bit of Maui Villanueva, and try to outduel Ateneo's slower lineups. DLSU must be wary, though- an Eagles lineup of Eric Salamat, Jai Reyes, Chris Tiu, Rabeh, and Nonoy Baclao can and will match up well with them. Ergo, DLSU needs to be judicious about knowing when to go coast to coast, and when to stop and pop.

In any event, slowing the game down will be disadvantageous for those in Green, considering the fact that Ateneo's frontline is pretty much the UAAP's version of the Great Wall of China. The Eagles will pound the Archers into submission in a slow motion slugfest. In a Road Runner/Wile E. Coyote type game, the Archers will have a chance. The less established the Ateneo rampart becomes, the more room for easy baskets there will be, presumably.

The Archers have to think like the Phoenix Suns, sans Shaq, of course.


**INTANGIBLES:

-Will Kirk Long make an impact in this series? He's been sleepwalking through the season so far, shooting miserably from the field and occupying the Norman Black's doghouse in favor of super rookie Ryan Buenafe. In my opinion, Kirk can make a statement in this series on the defensive end, shadowing, perhaps, JVee Casio or James Mangahas.

-Ferdinand is one of the hardest working big men in the UAAP, and in this series, he'll have his work cut out for him. The Archers need the Indonesian giant to play with a lot of grit if they hope to try and quell Rabeh Al Hussaini's impact in the paint. Honorable mention to PJ Walsham in this vein, too. Good luck, guys.

-Jai Reyes has been looking good recently, scoring in double figures in 3 of his last 5 games (his most recent outing featuring him scoring 13 points on 5-8 shooting). Him shooting decently in this series will take a monumental amount of pressure off of Chris Tiu and Al Hussaini. Franz will probably double Rabeh in this tiff, while James Mangahas will most likely be asked to shackle Tiu. "Jainamite" shooting the lights out should also force guys like JVee Casio and Simon Atkins to chase Jai around screens more, hence, tipping the fatigue scales in favor of the Blue and White.
This same logic applies to Ateneo supersub Eric Salamat.

-Chris Tiu's quest for a championship could end within the next week. In an interview before Season 71, Chris mentioned that one of his primary motivations for coming back for a 5th year was to win a UAAP title. He's Ateneo's coach on the floor, and DLSU should be aware of that. While he may not score twenty points on you every night, he does so many other things on the floor which help the Eagles win, so, if anything, the Archers need to find a way to shatter the focus and confidence of the Atenean captain by getting under his skin, and from there, fluster the rest of the troops in blue. That, of course, is something easier said than done.

-Beyond strategy, will come a surpreme test of will. Who will wilt under the pressure of playing before 20plus thousand raucous fans with the UAAP title on the line? Who will be able to keep their poise despite the utterly emotional atmosphere? Beyond the X's and O's, the victor in this category could very well take the crown.

Prediction: All things considered, I predict the opening salvo to be close, decided by anywhere between 6 to 8 points. The second game might be a bit more of a stretch, decided by anywhere from 10-12 points. This is a series defined by keeping steady at the onset of momentum. With all of the hype surrounding this matchup, it would only be natural to be all jumpy after tipoff, so, it's the team that exudes a superior sense of control and poise that will come out on top. I think this series will go the distance, with the Eagles winning game one, and the Archers grabbing the second round (ala-2002). Game three should be a classic, and I firmly believe that Ateneo's discipline on both ends of the floor, coupled with their well-balanced lineup, should be enough to supress the Archers who, while not as well-shaped as Ateneo in terms of personnel, possess a whole lot of moxy, the sort of moxy you find in feisty champions who will stop at nothing to defend their throne.

This time, though, the prevailing winds will speak volumes, and the Blue Eagle will once again be King of the UAAP.

I say Ateneo in 3.

See you at the games, everyone (if I can manage to tickets to all 2, or, 3). Cheer, cheer, cheer!

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