Quatro Quatro.

by Migs

Today, the UAAP Season 71 Final Four begins, and while I do not have tickets to this afternoon's games at the Araneta Coliseum, I do not feel less thrilled at what should be an afternoon of intense hoops action.

Here are some notes I have for the two games today featuring the Tams, Archers, Eagles, and Warriors.

-If Eric Salamat and one other Eagle score in double figures in addition to Al Hussaini and Tiu's typical production, Ateneo will have a higher than average chance of winning. If Nonoy Baclao can get consistent help on the inside from Rabeh or maybe even Baldos or Burke, then the Eagles would have all but punched their ticket to their first UAAP Finals appearance since 2006.

-The keys UE are Paul Zamar and Paul Lee. These guys are Dindo Pumaren's "Energizer Bunnies"- diving for loose balls, making 3's in transition, driving hard to the hole in fastbreak situations, etc. If either of these guys can get 8-12 points, then Ateneo will have one extra inside/outside threat to deal with, hence giving up more points, racking up more fouls for Rabeh or Baclao, and/or giving guys like Buenafe, Long, Tiu, or Salamat more reason to get tired and potentially be less potent down the stretch.

-If Paul Sanga jacks up threes for FEU like he did against La Salle, forget about it. If FEU want to stand a chance against a heady and jacked Green Archers squad, they need to play within the arc. No ill advised threes. Andy Barroca should do a Chauncey Billups and play Casio and Atkins physically. Baracael should take it to the hole like there's no tomorrow. Ben Fernandez should try and take a few extra dribbles for higher-clip conversions. All in all, I feel like if FEU loses today, it'll be due to them shooting themselves in the foot as much as it'll be due to La Salle's defensive prowess.

-DLSU likes to drive and kick. If Bader Malabes and Atkins have their crosshairs locked on properly this afternoon, look out. The Green and White could crush the Green and Yellow quicker than you can say...

Okay, I ran out of witty repartee. Next point, please.

-Neutralizing UE's transition game will be a challenge for the Ateneo Blue Eagles, considering the fact that they seem to be weaker in terms of perimeter defense as opposed to employing schemes that are designed to clog up the paint. Look for Kirk Long to get time today after playing sparingly in the Blue's last few outings. They need all the help they can in terms of chasing James Martinez, Paul Lee, Marcie Arellano, and Paul Zamar up and down the floor. As for Hans Thiele and Elmer Espiritu, if Rabeh and Nonoy keep their hands up on these guys and try to body them up, Ateneo should be fine.

-FEU needs a big game from Ben Fernandez. He was the Tamaraws' leading scoring when Mac Baracael went down, and now that it's money time, he needs to produce. Should La Salle's defense force him to drive, he should be cognizant of the fact that he's got bruiser Reil Cervantes and the athletic Aldrich Ramos to pass to for easy deuces. If this fellow can keep his head in the game and find his shooting/passing touch, the Morayta boys will have a shot at victory.

-Rico Maierhoffer's been tearing it up as of late. He scored 14 points, grabbed 10 boards, and tallied 2 blocks in La Salle's last game against Far Eastern University, and in the four games prior to that, he's quietly registered performances of 16 and 10, 16 and 16, 16 and 14, and 18 and 13. Being a big man who has been given the "green" light to roam the floor, he's bound to get a lot of touches, put backs, and shots. FEU's got to put a body on this guy if the expect to get anywhere near the finish line. I expect Rico to put up big numbers again, though, as I don't see anyone on the FEU frontline (yep, not even Ramos) who can keep up with number 10 on iso or screen and roll sets.

-Last season, the UE Red Warriors swept the elimination round, and then, sadly were swept when it counted the most. This year, the Ateneo Blue Eagles own the Superman cape and tights. Will they fold similar to how the Warriors crumbled a year ago, or can the Eagles bring the glory of the late eighties back to the fore?

-In 2002, Gec Chia shattered UE's dreams of a finals berth with one miraculous right cornercourt jump shot that found the bottom of the net as time expired in a raucous stadium in stadium in Cubao. Expectations are that the UE/Ateneo tiff set for later today will go down the wire. With Ateneo's bench scoring for Season 71 being dead last in the league, who will the Eagles unsung hero/es be if and when the going gets rough for their first five? Conversely, who will the Warriors' James Yap and Paul Artadi (and oh yes, Ronald Tubid) be in this day and age?

-Today could be the final game days for UAAP stalwarts Mac Baracael, Elmer Espiritu, Marcie Arellano, and Ben Fernandez. Will wins by their teams today be labeled as, "delaying the inevitable", or, the "beginnings of greater things"? Over the fourteen years in which the modern Final Four format has been used, the #1 seed has downed the #4 seed 100% of the time, with the #1 seed beating the 4th seed 23% of the time in the second game of the series. The 2nd seed has defeated the 3rd seed 57% of the time, with the #2 team winning 57% percent of the time in the sophomore encounter of the series.

Furthermore, in the modern history of the UAAP finals, the win loss ratios are as follows:

The #1 seed has beaten the #2 seed 6 times (43%)
The #1 seed has beaten the #3 seed 3 times (21%)
The #2 seed has beaten the #1 seed 2 times (14%)
The #3 seed has beaten the #1 seed 3 times (21%)
The #1 seed has won the championship 9 times (64%)

(Stats courtesy of wikipedia.org)

While history has not been all that kind to lower UAAP Final Four and Finals seeds, in sports, as we all know, having a miniscule chance at glory at all, is as good a shot at winning as any. There are a multitude of intangibles in basketball after all, and to say that pure skill and strategy were the SOLE factors in successful UAAP teams triumphing like they did would be to deem one's self as dreadfully naive.

and finally...

-It always intrigues me what gimmicks the Pep Squads of the UAAP's upper eschelon teams come up with for their halftime routines, especially for their showcases during big money contests (well, apparently the better than average win-loss record qualification didn't stop National University from fielding in a "guest cheerdancer" not so long ago, but I digress). Will Ateneo bring out its "Polly Pocket" Babble Group? Will we see a live Eagle in the Big Dome (maybe they're prepping the big fella up for the Finals)? Will the DLSU pep squad be shooting toy arrows into the stands? Will the FEU squad come up with a routine that'll make Arwind Santos want to come back? Will UE's cheerdancers- red and white apron-looking outfits and all (sorry, I'm just calling it like I see it...would it help if I said that Ateneo and La Salle cheerers tend to look fairie-ish in their outifts? Not ugly, mind you...just....fairie-ish)- find a way to jump, jive, and multiple cartwheel and handset their way towards rallying their compatriots from Recto to a Final Four upset?

So long as no aged alumni from any of the schools get involved in some whimsical (or disconcerting) manner, then, I'm all for lavishing the halftime routines (and taking in winning or losing later) with as much creativity and panache, as possible.

Tickets or no tickets, let's all enjoy the games later on. No wagering, please

=)

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